Biggest Storylines Heading into Week 8 College Football
Does Ole Miss stay undefeated in Death Valley?
Ole Miss improved to 7-0 yesterday with a 48-34 home win vs the Auburn Tigers. Still, a glance at their schedule tells you this team has had quite the favorable path to their 7-0 start. Their hardest non-conference game came against Geoff Collins-coached Georgia Tech, they have already played Vanderbilt and Auburn, and they were lucky to escape with a win vs Kentucky. Safe to say, things are about to tighten up starting Saturday afternoon against LSU.
The Ole Miss run game is clearly the strength of the team, and though QB Jaxson Dart has been a bit inconsistent, he’s been plenty fine for the Rebels. However, I was staggered to see how hard of a time their defense had against lowly Auburn. Let’s not forget: Entering Saturday, Auburn had failed to score 17 points on any Power 5 opponent this season. Yet, all they did in Oxford was run for over 300 yards and put up 34 on the Rebels defense.
This will clearly be Ole Miss’ toughest test of the season. LSU returns home at 5-2 after their best performance of the season in a 45-35 win at Florida. I’ve been very critical of LSU’s offensive line, but they seemed to show major progress against the Gators. That finally allowed QB Jayden Daniels enough time to strike through the air, which he did plentifully(23/32, 349 yards, 3 TD vs 0 INT).
How does Ole Miss translate in this environment? Can Brian Kelly carry over some of those improvements in what is still his 1st season in Baton Rouge?
How does undefeated UCLA translate on the road in Eugene?
The 2022 UCLA Bruins have shocked a lot of people with their undefeated start(not me; if you’ll remember, I played the Bruins to win OVER 8.5 games preseason). While their non-conference schedule was weak, they clearly outmatched Washington on a national stage before doing more of the same to Utah, last year’s Pac-12 Champion.
There’s not much to dislike about this offense; Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a 5th year starting QB that has continually progressed over his time in LA, and Zack Charbonnet is a true bruiser at the RB position that has run for over 7 yards per carry this season. Because he took over a rebuilding job and fell off the national radar for a while, people seemed to have forgotten how much of an offensive genius UCLA HC Chip Kelly truly is. You could make the argument that his practices while HC at Oregon have had as much of an impact on the way offenses are run in 2022 than anything else.
Despite their early success, this is where we’ll find out how repeatable UCLA’s early success is. 5 of the Bruins’ first 6 games were played at home; even though the Rose Bowl has been laughably empty this season, that’s still quite an advantage. Their only road game was played at Colorado, a team that was still in total disarray at the time with Karl Dorrell still leading the way. Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon is one of the great environments CFB has to offer, and the Ducks’ on-field product has been equally impressive since their Opening Week loss to Georgia. For as bad as that Georgia loss was, Oregon has really looked good along their current 5 game win streak. The Ducks feature an array of explosive playmakers offensively that QB Bo Nix can leave the heavy lifting to, and as has become custom, the Ducks are very stout in the trenches. We know UCLA is far from spotless defensively, so Kelly will likely need his QB/RB combo to bring their “A” game for the Bruins to pull the outright road upset.
Is Texas a legitimate contender in the Big12 race?
My Longhorns improved to 5-2 on the year and 3-1 in conference play with a 24-21 win over Iowa State yesterday. One might argue they were lucky to escape with a win, but they forced 2 Iowa State red zone turnovers, including a Hunter Dekkers fumble that all but iced the game. A week after beating rival Oklahoma like a drum, the Longhorns were reminded that there are indeed no off-weeks in the 2022 version of the Big 12.
Regardless, any team needs to learn how to win ugly. Now, Texas hits the road for just the 2nd time this season to take on 1-loss Oklahoma State. The Cowboys blew a 14-point 4th Quarter lead in Fort Worth on Saturday in an eventual 2OT loss to TCU. Additionally, there seem to be some concerns floating around the health of senior QB Spencer Sanders; Texas is up to a 4.5 point road favorite as this line has been steamed up considerably since opening closer to a “pick-em” on Sunday.
We will find out a lot about Texas’ legitimacy in the Big 12 race this Saturday. They dropped their only other road game to Texas Tech back in September, and if you’ll remember, freshman QB Quinn Ewers did not play in that game. Everybody has seen Texas’ offense at its best this year, but how does that translate in a tough road environment? Additionally, how does the Horns’ pass defense translate going up against a tenured offense mind in Mike Gundy? Texas has yielded career days to Hunter Dekkers and Donovan Smith already this season, so you can rest assured Gundy will have a good gameplan set for this ever-important matchup in the Big12.
Another tough home test for undefeated TCU
TCU remained undefeated with a comeback, 2OT win vs Oklahoma State. On deck, however, is another tough test in the form of 1-loss Kansas State. The Wildcats actually come into Fort Worth still undefeated in Big 12 play, with their only blemish being a home loss to Tulane.
It’s been quite the ride for TCU over the past 3 weeks. They broke out on a national stage and hung 55 on Oklahoma’s defense, followed that up with a road win over America’s Darling(Kansas), and then found a way to win against the Pokes. One thing to consider is that, while TCU was scratching and clawing their way to a 2OT win, Kansas State enjoyed a BYE Week. Additionally, TCU QB Max Duggan was playing hurt down the stretch of Saturday’s game and is assuredly not at full strength.
Kansas State presents the toughest defensive test Sonny Dykes’ squad will have seen all year. We know how lethal K-State RB Deuce Vaughn is, but this game will almost assuredly come down to which Adrian Martinez we get. The 5th year starting QB has been inconsistent once again at his new landing spot, but his dual threat nature makes him plenty capable to take advantage of the Horned Frog defense IF(big if) he can avoid turnovers.
Do we see a classic Nick Saban response after Saturday’s loss to Tennessee?
Alabama had been showing cracks all season, and the explosiveness of Tennessee’s offense was finally enough to hand the Tide their first loss of the 2022 season.
Now, Alabama returns back home to take on Mississippi State, a team that’s also reeling after an ugly loss in Lexington. Funny enough, Alabama matched up with the Bulldogs in Starkville last year just 1 week after losing in grand fashion to Texas A&M; they cruised to a 49-9 win.
Mike Leach has done a lot of good since arriving to Starkville in early 2020, but in 2 matchups with Alabama, his Bulldogs have failed to reach the end zone, getting shutout in 2020 and having to settle for 3 field goals last season. I’m not saying Alabama -21.5 is the “GoAt WhAlE mAx 500 uNiT LOCK OF THE CENTURY”, but this would appear to be a great “get right” spot for Nick Saban and co.
Can Syracuse put up a good fight at Clemson?
Syracuse has been arguably the biggest surprise in CFB this season. In a year where the Orange were projected to miss a bowl game(likely leading to the firing of Head Coach Dino Babers), Syracuse has already checked that box with an undefeated 6-0 start. They trounced Louisville at home to open the season and picked up key wins vs Purdue and NC State.
Five of Syracuse’s first six games, however, have been played at home; their lone road game came at lowly UCONN. Traveling to Death Valley to take on undefeated Clemson will be unfamiliar territory for Dino Babers’ bunch.
This is also an interesting spot for Clemson. For as much as the ACC schedule gets scrutinized, the Tigers have played “big games” in 3 of their last 4 games. They escaped with an OT win at Wake Forest despite an ugly defensive showing, came back home the next week and handled then-undefeated NC State, and are on the heels of a big road win at Florida State. A BYE Week lays ahead, but Clemson once again will have to show their new-and-improved offense is up for the challenge.
Can Purdue continue winning by 1 possession?
After a 1-2 start to the season, Purdue has rattled off 4 straight victories; that’s the good news. However, they have won those games by an average of just 5 PPG, and Saturday’s 43-37 defeat of Nebraska was another one possession nail biter.
With all of the shakeup/chaos in the Big 10 West this year, Purdue enters Week 8 tied with Illinois for the top spot in the West division. On deck is a tough, division road battle with the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin dropped to 3-4 with an OT loss at Michigan State and have already undergone a coaching shakeup here in 2022. Still, the Badgers feature one of the best RB’s in the Big10 in Braelon Allen and are well coached on the defensive side of the ball.
Can Purdue continue to win ‘em close, or will we see yet another shakeup in the Big 10 West?
Something’s gotta give in Minnesota/Penn State
Both Minnesota and Penn State come limping into this game for somewhat different reasons. The Gophers dropped their 2nd straight game this past weekend to Illinois and lost their starting QB Tanner Morgan in the process, while Penn State was really just outclassed against a far superior Michigan squad.
We saw Minnesota OC Kirk Ciarroca have an immediate impact on the Gophers’ offense through 4 games, but it’s a bit concerning to see back-to-back clunker performances offensively. If Morgan is unable to suit up in this game, PJ Fleck can still lean on his run game; Minnesota might have one of the best RB rooms in all of College Football, and Penn State especially struggled to stop the run against Michigan.
If you’re a Penn State fan, the bitterness that comes from Saturday’s loss almost assuredly stems from the fact that the Nittany Lions didn’t step up in competition well. Give Minnesota respect, but this is clearly not a game that would fit that category in the eyes of Penn State fans. QB Sean Clifford has clear limitations as a passer(there’s a reason he refuses to leave State College… he’s anything but a Sunday player), and the run game has sort of stalled out after showing promise in the Auburn game. Even so, getting back home against the Gophers will give us quick clarification as to what this Penn State team is all about.
Can Miami pass the “eye test” for the first time in 2022?
After dropping 3 straight games in rather ugly fashion, Miami desperately needed a win in Blacksburg this past Saturday. While things got too close for comfort late, Miami did just that, downing Virginia Tech 20-14.
In retrospect, I think we can agree that Mario Cristobal did not inherit a roster that was ready to live up to the standard of “The U” in Year 1. Their WR corps is not at full strength, the trenches aren’t up to Cristobal’s liking, and as we saw against Middle Tennessee State, the secondary is incredibly vulnerable. Even so, Miami has finally started to get QB Tyler Van Dyke playing to the level many of us expected him to coming into the year. After being benched for poor play in the Middle Tennessee State loss, Van Dyke has responded by throwing for 847 yards, 5 TD’s, and just 1 INT in Miami’s past 2 games.
Despite Saturday’s win, the ‘Canes have yet to break out with a dominant win against a formidable opponent here in 2022. In my opinion, a matchup with Duke this Saturday presents a real opportunity for Miami to do so. Duke got off to a fast 4-1 start under 1st year HC Mike Elko, but losses to Georgia Tech and UNC have dropped the Blue Devils back down to Earth. While they did put themselves in a position to take down rival UNC late this past Saturday, Duke is still a team with some pretty glaring holes, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. In theory, Van Dyke should be able to sustain his recent level of play against the Blue Devils.
Is Cincinnati still the dominant force in the AAC we’re used to seeing?
After Cincinnati’s loss to Arkansas on a big stage in Week 1, the Bearcats have remained far off the radar. The Bearcats have rattled off 5 straight win since that opening loss, including a 45-24 drubbing of Indiana and a double-digit win at Tulsa.
Coming off a BYE Week, the Bearcats now travel to Dallas to take on SMU. It’s been a season of disappointments for SMU; they lost by one-possession in their tougher non-conference games(Maryland and TCU) before being trounced a few weeks ago by UCF. Despite beating Navy last week, that game remained a lot closer than the oddsmakers thought it would.
Despite some of the question marks around SMU, the early money has poured in in their favor; this line is all the way to Cincinnati as just a 2.5-3 point road favorite. By establishing themselves as the team to beat in the AAC, Cincinnati can rest assured that they’ll get everybody’s best punch, and this week should be no exception.
What did Texas A&M’s offense do to improve over the BYE Week?
Last we saw of the Aggies, QB Haynes King narrowly missed WR Evan Stewart for a potential game winning TD that would’ve knocked off Alabama. That narrow loss dropped Texas A&M to 3-3, but a BYE Week has the Aggies focused and ready to show out on the road against 4-2 South Carolina.
With Max Johnson on the shelf with a broken hand, it’ll remain the Haynes King show in College Station. While his performance against the Tide was “gutsy”, this A&M offense has clearly been lackluster through 6 games. For as long as Jimbo Fisher is calling plays and failing to adjust his scheme to that of many of his counterparts, A&M’s offense will continue to be scrutinized. Say what you want about South Carolina, but Shane Beamer and the Cocks are still riding high off of their upset win over Kentucky and also come into this game off a BYE. As A&M has shown against Sam Houston State, Appalachian State, Arkansas, they aren’t well equipped to take advantage of their more favorable matchups.
Do we see any offensive adjustments, or will the Aggies continue to put out an outdated product?