April 28th Daily Recap
Record: 1-2, -0.7u
*MLB Best Bet Winner(+1.5u): Rockies/Giants OVER 7(-105)
Pregame Analysis:
I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face: Totals this low in MLB should be reserved for only the best of pitching matchups. Are we really getting that with German Marquez vs Alex Wood tonight? San Francisco might be a pitcher friendly park, but with the wind blowing out tonight I see that advantage being basically negated. German Marquez pitched well against the Giants last year, but this is a different and rejuvenated San Fran order. 6 out of the 9 projected starters for the Giants tonight are lefties, and as a whole, each of the top 4 in this order have a career OPS of above 1.000 when facing Marquez(minimum 8 at-bats). Alex Wood has a sub 1.00 ERA through 2 starts, but considering both starts came against Miami, that’s not very surprising. The Rockies order is nowhere near their past form, but I do think they have been undervalued. Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story are two great hitters who have each raked Wood throughout their careers, and I think the other fill-ins in this Colorado order can do just enough to hold their own. 7 is a low but key number for MLB totals; 4-3 game warrants a push. Lucky for us, I see quite a few more runs than this line indicates tonight.
Postgame Analysis:
While things were looking shaky entering the final innings of this game, my gut feeling about this low total eventually came to be. The Giants got off to a hot start with a 4 run 2nd inning, but Alex Wood carried a no-hit bid into the 6th and held the Rockies scoreless through 6. At this point, needing 4 runs in the final 3 innings from two bad offenses and coming off a heartbreaking loss on the Nuggets(see below), I thought I was staring a 0-3 night right in the face. I turned the game off, which might’ve been just what we needed. The teams combined for 5 runs in the 7th to push this one over the total and save a disastrous night. I had a good feeling that the Giants would get to Marquez, and if I had to do it over again, I probably would’ve looked towards a Giants TT Over, either in the F5 or full game. Because, my goodness, this Rockies lineup is horrible. Playing these low totals with bad offenses can be a pain to watch, but it has been one of my more profitable angles in the MLB this year. That is now 4 straight best bet winners!
*MLB Loser(-1.1u): Angels/Rangers F5 UNDER 4.5
Pregame Analysis:
In a day and age where fastball velocity and spin rates are at the forefront of pitching, we have a nice throwback matchup tonight with Alex Cobb(LAA) and Dane Dunning(TEX) facing off at pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field tonight. Cobb had a lot of success with Tampa earlier in the decade before falling off these last few years; while his 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 2021 are nothing to write home about, his 2.51 FIP tells me he’s pitching a little better than his ERA indicates. He’s also reworked his arsenal to strike out 21 batters in just 14.1 innings of work. Facing a Rangers lineup that really only has 2 weapons(Dahl, Gallo), I like Cobb’s chances of showing out tonight. Dane Dunning is a similar low 90’s guy with a weird arm angle, but the second-year righty has had much more success than Cobb this season(3.06 ERA). The Angels have a really good lineup, but Dunning’s style is rather unorthodox in this day and age and could cause some confusion. It also helps that Dunning has allowed just 1 HR through 4 starts and will be pitching in a beast of a ballpark tonight. Getting a key number of 4.5(2-2 game after 5 still cashes), I’ll take my chances with the F5 Under in this spot.
Postgame Analysis:
This one had no chance out of the gates. Dane Dunning consistently fell behind Angels hitters and certainly paid for it in the first inning, yielding 4 runs. Right on cue, the Rangers scrapped a run off of Cobb in the first to ensure this bet was over before it even started. I probably gave Dunning too much credit entering this matchup, but I did like him as a prospect for the White Sox; he has fared better than most rookie pitchers do when they enter the major leagues. This was a situation where the full game under cashed while the first 5 under didn’t, as neither team scored a run after the 2nd inning. That is an anomaly, and you will rarely see me play full game Unders unless we get two bullpens I know I can trust. Either way, this bet was probably me getting a little too cute with the sabermetrics and not taking a step back to say, “Am I really going to trust Alex Cobb and Dane Dunning to cash me a F5 Under?”.
*NBA Loser(-1.1u): Nuggets -4 vs Pelicans
Pregame Analysis:
When Jamal Murray went down, Denver instantly became a team the public was looking to bet against. Since then, the Nuggets have won 6 of 7 and show no signs of stopping tonight. New Orleans is one of the most inconsistent, up-and-down teams in the NBA that simply can’t get stops. This is the first game of a 3 game road trip for the Pels; after tonight’s game, they’ll have 2 winnable games facing Oklahoma City and Minnesota. Knowing they have 2 great spots coming up, the Pels might very well concede this game if they get down by enough late in this game. Denver is a tough place to play and the Nuggets are rolling, so Stan Van Gundy might opt to limit his guys tonight to keep them fresh for more advantageous games. The Nuggets have won their first 2 games of a current 4 game home-stand and should be motivated to get revenge after New Orleans snuck away with a 5 point road win the last time these 2 teams played. I think the Nuggets are the right side tonight.
Postgame Analysis:
This loss was demoralizing and legitimately took me an hour to process. Entering this play on a 5-1 streak in the NBA, I felt sure that the Nuggets would come out and completely control this game. That they did, securing a 9 point lead heading into the Half. With a stalemate 27-27 3Q, I felt confident that the Nuggets would put New Orleans away with the Pelicans trying to save their starters for 2 winnable games on the horizon. The Nuggets didn’t quite do that, but they remained steady enough to hold a 9 point lead with 53 seconds to go. That’s when the nightmare started. Three separate 3 pointers by New Orleans, including a 28 foot bank shot, 2 Nuggets turnovers, and 2 Nuggets missed free throws led to what was a disastrous finish for Nuggets backers. I don’t regret playing this game because I was mostly right outside of that final minute of the game. Give New Orleans credit; they truly played to the final whistle. The Nuggets should’ve cashed, but it also probably wasn’t the best spot in the NBA today. Why do I keep doubting the Knicks?