April 29th Daily Recap
April 29th Record: 0-2, -2.8u
*MLB Best Bet Loser(-1.8u): Dodgers -1.5(-120) @ Brewers
Pregame Analysis:
It’s one thing to trust your numbers and try to look for as much line value as possible, but sometimes the best betting strategy is to trust people. I trust Trevor Bauer to throw a gem in Milwaukee tonight. Last year’s Cy Young winner is familiar with this lineup and Miller Park having spent 1.5 seasons in the NL Central. I think very poorly of this Brewers lineup, and that is escalated when you consider Christian Yelich is still on the IL. Likewise, I think the Dodgers lineup draws an easy matchup facing Eric Lauer in his first start of the season. Lauer had a disastrous 2020 and has yet to establish himself in the big leagues. When that’s the case, this Dodgers lineup is the last thing you want to see coming at you. Milwaukee has a good bullpen, but I think the Dodgers will take control of this game early and often, which means we probably won’t see any of the Brewers’ late-inning guys tonight. I love the Dodgers in this spot.
Postgame Analysis:
Trevor Bauer showed up for LAD tonight just as I thought he would, throwing 8 innings of 2 run ball. Unlucky for him, timely hitting was non-existent from his usually reliable lineup. The Dodgers totaled just 1 run despite recording 9 hits because they left an astounding 13 runners on base. 7 guys recorded a hit too; we just couldn’t get one when it mattered most. That’s the frustrating thing about baseball compared to other sports. A team like the Dodgers will bounce back from tonight and go on to have a great season, but games like this are going to be mixed in with all of the good ones. You just have to take a long-term approach when betting baseball and trust that things will even out.
*NBA Loser(-1.1u): Nets/Pacers UNDER 241.5
Pregame Analysis:
I have tended to stray away from totals in basketball because it’s an area I don’t have a great feel for. However, upon the news that Kyrie Irving would not play tonight, I hopped all over this Under before the market corrected itself. Kyrie Irving has been a mainstay for Brooklyn all year as Kevin Durant and James Harden have rotated their way in and out of the lineup. You can’t possibly expect Brooklyn to easily account for the loss of a guy that averages 27 PPG and shoots over 50% from the floor, especially when he is the point guard. With no true point guard to lead the Nets offense tonight, I expect them to be out of rhythm. While this is true, I do think Brooklyn has some advantageous matchups on the defensive end. Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are out once again for Indiana; with Blake Griffin, Deandre Jordan, Jeff Green, etc. manning the frontcourt for Brooklyn, points in the paint should be at a premium for this Pacers squad. When you’re looking at a total this high, a lot of things have to go right. With so many key players out in tonight’s game, I have a hard time seeing a shootout take place.
Postgame Analysis:
I acknowledged this in my preview, but NBA/CBB totals are just not my thing. I’ve had almost no consistent success with them, so I tend to just stay away. I saw the Kyrie Irving news unfold right before my eyes and jumped the gun a little bit with this play. Despite what was almost a miracle cover with these teams combining for just 39 points in the 4Q, this was a bad look. These teams play at too fast a pace to ever feel comfortable about playing them Under. I got too cute with this play and I paid the price for it. I’ll be sticking strictly with sides in the NBA going forward, which has been profitable for me all year, excluding an occasional Knicks Under.