May 19th Recap
May 19th Record: 1-2-1, -1u
May Overall Record: 20-19-1, +0.69u
*MLB Loser(-1u): Rays/Orioles F5 UNDER 4(+100)
--As expected, John Means came out strong for the Orioles tonight. The ace lefty threw 4 shutout innings to start the game before getting tagged for 3 runs in the 5th and one more in the 7th. Unfortunately for us, this bet was lost well before that play. Ryan Yarbrough allowed 2 homers in the first two innings of this game, and thanks to a Willy Adames error, 3 more unearned runs were scored in the 2nd thanks to a Trey Mancini double. Mancini was one of the two Orioles to homer off of Yarbrough at the start of the game and finished 4 for 5 with 5 RBI’s in total. Outside of him, this Orioles lineup is still well below average, but perhaps I overvalued Yarbrough with this play. I like that he limits hard contact, but because his stuff/velocity isn’t great, his margin-for-error is very small for missed spots. If you watched this game, you know he couldn’t locate the ball all night. These are two offenses I will still look to fade, and I’m frustrated we couldn’t cash this one in tonight.
*NBA Best Bet Push(+0u): Grizzlies -4 vs Spurs
--To start the game on a 27-6 run and still not cover a two-possession spread is absolutely heartbreaking. I guess you can credit the Spurs for fighting back because they didn’t show much fight throughout the last stretch of the regular season, but Memphis played downright horrible on multiple occasions in this game. To make matters worse, the Grizz shot just 13-24 from the foul line, including Ja Morant’s dismal 2-6 output from the charity stripe. Somehow, this wasn’t even my most frustrating beat of the night. Regardless, the Grizzlies win by 4 and live to fight another day. We can say they’re young and inexperienced, but from what I saw tonight, I think Memphis gets run out of the arena in their game on Friday. The Spurs shot 35% from the field and basically gave Memphis every opportunity to close the door. Terrible.
*MLB Winner(+1u): Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9.5(-110)
--On a night with some tough breaks, it was nice to get one to go my way. This one looked to be in the bag from the jump with Boston grabbing a commanding 6-1 lead after 2 innings of play. However, the game remained a standstill until the 7th inning when the Blue Jays added 2 runs, leaving me needing just 1 in the final 2 innings. I didn’t have to wait long; Christian Vazquez deposited a solo shot into the left-center concourse in the top of the 8th to put the cherry on top of this winner. The game ended with the Sox winning 7-3, so I won’t boast too much here, but this total was inappropriately priced. While it opened at 10.5, news of 20 mph winds blowing in from CF crashed this total down a full run. In the grand scheme of things, both of these offenses are versatile enough and don’t rely solely on the longball, leading me to believe that the line movement we saw was an overreaction. By an eyelash, I was right. I like each of these teams’ offenses and will continue to categorize each as “Over teams”.
*MLB Loser(-1u): Nationals -1.5(+100) @ Cubs
--What a heartbreaking end to the night. Sitting at 1-1-1, +0.0u with just this play pending, the Nationals held a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the 9th. Considering Brad Hand’s abilities in comparison to other big league closers’, I felt good about his chances to put up a 0 and finish my day off with a winner. Much to my dismay, Hand allowed a solo bomb to Javier Baez with one out in the 9th but ended up closing things out to clinch the Nationals win. There is so much more value in playing run-lines than money lines in baseball, but even with Max Scherzer on the mound, it’s hard to lay runs with the Nats considering their inconsistent offensive production. They made improvements to the lineup over the course of the offseason, but they are still not a team I can trust to lay runs with anymore. If you can’t tell, I’m not happy we caught two bad breaks with the Grizzlies and Nationals tonight. That’s the way it goes sometimes; looking ahead to tomorrow!